Here’s Why Flour Prices Are Expected to Skyrocket in 2024
Updated: Apr. 27, 2023
Don't worry, bakers—there are still plenty of ways to buy flour on the cheap.
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2023 hasn’t been a good year for food inflation. From eggs to oranges, many kitchen basics have skyrocketed in price over the past few months. Unfortunately, it seems as if another popular pantry staple will be hit hard in 2024: flour.
Here is everything you need to know about the potential flour shortage, including why it’s happening, when you can expect it, how much prices may increase, and my own personal tips as a food writer and bread baker for saving your precious dough.
Why Are Flour Prices Going to Rise?
In the United States, we grow three main varieties of wheat: hard red winter, hard red spring and soft red wheats. The first two classes are grown in the South and Central states, which have experienced extreme drought conditions over the past year, especially Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas.
Because of this widespread drought, a whopping 75% of the country’s wheat crops are currently being grown in drought conditions, according to the USDA. This means that huge portions of American wheat crops are dying, and those that are surviving the heat are often inedible or low-quality. Indeed, this year marks a record low in wheat production for the United States. And when any product is this short in supply with sustained demand, prices tend to skyrocket.
When Are Flour Prices Going to Rise?
Given the current agricultural cycles from winter and early spring, experts are predicting that flour prices will rise in 2024. It’s worth noting that there is still a chance that the third varietal of wheat—soft red wheat—will pull through and lessen the blow. Currently, it’s too early to call, but as of April 11, “nearly all major soft red winter wheat areas were drought-free,” according to Food Business News. While this can’t save flour prices from increasing entirely, it may be able to lessen the intensity of a retail price hike.
How Much Are Flour Prices Going to Rise?
Again, experts aren’t quite sure yet. However, one potential predictor of future price increases is the war in Ukraine. When Russia invaded the “breadbasket” country in late February this year, flour prices increased by about 55% in early March, according to AP News. While this price increase was due to Ukrainian farmers being unable to tend their fields, the retail impact of it may mirror that of a future drought-induced shortage.
How Can I Get Flour for Cheaper as Prices Rise?
Now, as an avid bread baker, I have experienced the rising flour prices firsthand. Standard bags of flour that used to cost me just $4 are now ringing in at $7 or $8 (to be fair, I live in the Bay Area, one of America’s most expensive regions). Still, I consider myself a bit of a flour-purchasing expert—here are some of the tricks I use to save money without sacrificing my precious baking.
Buy in Bulk
Try to buy flour in bulk, instead of in smaller individual bags whenever possible. While the first purchase may be more expensive, it tends to be cheaper in the long run. Try your local supermarket’s bulk section, or box stores that specialize in bulk quantities, like Costco or Sam’s Club.
Shop Online
Many bread bakers swear by purchasing flour online. Amazon offers 5-pound and 10-pound bags for half the price of other retailers. Additionally, you can buy flour wholesale, as a bakery would, to really rack up savings. Some solid providers are Ardent Mills and Webstaurant Store.
Store it Properly
Finally, if you’re buying flour in large quantities, you have to make sure it doesn’t go to waste. Light degrades flour, so store it somewhere dark and cool—like your refrigerator! Many professional bakers swear by freezing or at least refrigerating their flours to extend their shelf lives. This is especially important for whole wheat varieties, which go off quicker than all-purpose flours. Additionally, always use an air-tight storage container so that your flour doesn’t go stale.
Slow-Cooker Cinnamon Roll
Whole Wheat Strawberry Shortcakes
Nothing says spring better than a fresh strawberry shortcake. It is heavenly. My mother and I usually make this with strawberries we picked ourselves. —Sarah Hatter, Brodhead, Wisconsin
French Toast Cookies
I created these soft, sparkly cookies because my sister loves cinnamon French toast covered in maple syrup. In the case of these cookies, bigger is definitely better! I like to use white whole wheat flour, but any whole wheat flour will work.—Mary Shenk, Dekalb, Illinois
Honey Whole Wheat Pan Rolls
With their pleasant wheat flavor and a honey of a glaze, these rolls impress my guests. Every time I take them to potluck dinners, I come home with an empty pan. —Nancye Thompson, Paducah, Kentucky
Whole Wheat Blueberry Muffins
Whole wheat flour gives nutritious flair to these healthy blueberry muffins. Fresh from the oven, they’ll warm you up on cold, winter days. —Sheila Siem, Calumet, Michigan
Swedish Apple Pie
This decadent Swedish apple pie serves up homemade flavor in every bite. This is a perfect snack with coffee or as an after-dinner treat. —Sarah Klier, Grand Rapids, Michigan
Homemade Honey Grahams
The way my boys eat them, I would spend a fortune on honey graham crackers at the grocery store. So I decided to make a homemade version that is less processed—and less expensive. These are wonderful, although they still don't last long. —Crystal Jo Bruns, Iliff, Colorado
Whole Grain Banana Pancakes
My kids love homemade banana bread, so why not make it in pancake form? These freeze well for a special breakfast any day. —Ally Billhorn, Wilton, Iowa
Makeover Biscuits & Gravy
We lightened up biscuits and gravy to curb our guilt for eating them the day after having pancakes. Here’s a terrific homemade recipe for brunch guests. —Ian Cliffe, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Apple Cider Doughnuts
Apple doughnuts remind me of family trips to South Dakota. We’d stop at Wall Drug for a dozen or so before camping in the Badlands. Maple glaze was and still is my favorite. Share a batch with friends and family who appreciate a hot, fresh apple cider doughnut. —Melissa Hansen, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Beef Pot Pie
For more than a dozen years, this has been the No. 1 dish to serve company at our house. So far, everyone has given it a thumbs-up rating. —Hannah McDowell, Penns Creek, Pennsylvania
Whole Wheat Pizza Dough
Pizza, egg pockets, stromboli—this make-ahead whole wheat pizza dough has endless potential for quick and impressive breakfasts, lunches or dinners. —Taste of Home Test Kitchen
Triple-Ginger Gingersnaps
These crunchy treats feature fresh, ground and crystallized ginger, making them a bit more special than the traditional cookie. They are always a hit around the holidays. —Jessica Follen, Waunakee, Wisconsin
Carrot Honey Loaf
As a busy health-care professional and mom, one of the most meaningful gifts I give to the people I love is my time and skills in the kitchen. I have been baking since I was 7 years old and while I still am an avid baker, raising three children, caring for three dogs and working full-time leaves me with little energy! My family appreciates all my efforts and this is a favorite extra "gift" I give people for special events like a housewarming or welcoming a new baby. It is especially good toasted with butter. —Krystal Horudko, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada
Dark Chocolate Chip Zucchini Bread
A colleague brought this in one day for someone’s birthday. I grow zucchini in my garden so I had a lot of opportunities to experiment with the recipe. My mother-in-law loves it, and not just because it's pretty good for you! —Sally Newton, Smethport, Pennsylvania
Yogurt Yeast Rolls
People tend to snap up these fluffy, golden rolls, in a hurry whenever I take them to a potluck. It's a nice contribution since rolls are easy to transport, and one batch goes a long way. — Carol Forcum, Marion, Illinois
Sesame Wheat Braids
When I started making this bread, my husband and our six children liked it so much that I was baking every day! I was thrilled when the judges at our county fair gave these braids both a blue ribbon and a best of show award! —Nancy Montgomery, Hartville, Ohio
Almond Berry Pancakes
Whole wheat flour and two kinds of berries add an extra helping of nutrition to these hearty pancakes. It’s a breakfast I feel good about eating. —Sarah Haengel, Bowie, Maryland
Pumpkin Banana Muffins
These pumpkin banana muffins are the perfect bite-sized snack for fall. —Desiree Rasch, Blue Springs, Missouri
Sage Fontina Focaccia
These rustic loaves have plenty of sage flavor—a tasty addition to any feast. — Beth Dauenhauer, Pueblo, Colorado
Favorite Deep-Dish Pizza
My kids love to get pizza delivered, but it's expensive and not very healthy. I came up with a one-bowl pizza that is healthier than delivery and allows the kids to add the toppings of their choice. —Sara LaFountain, Rockville, Maryland
Honey-Oat Pan Rolls
These tender rolls are relatively quick to make. Whole wheat flour and oats make them nutritious, too.—Arlene Butler, Ogden, Utah
Caramel Apple Scones
A drizzle of caramel complements the apple and whole wheat flavors of these rustic-looking scones. —Arlene Cook, Bainbridge, Georgia
Rosemary Walnut Bread
I received this recipe from a friend who was moving into a new apartment. To celebrate, she made this bread to share and now it is served at many of my family functions.—Robin Haas, Cranston, Rhode Island
Hearty Multigrain Pancakes
Oats and whole wheat flour make these tasty pancakes extra hearty. Try them with applesauce spooned on top! —Jeri Tirmenstein, Apache Junction, Arizona
Cran-Apple Crisp
Cranberries, walnuts, brown sugar and orange peel help give this apple-packed crowd-pleaser its rich flavor. After the first taste, guests will be asking for the recipe...and a second helping. —Diane Everett of Newtown, Connecticut
Peanut Brittle Bars
Pairing the old-fashioned flavor of peanut brittle with yummy chocolate chips turns these bars into a satisfying treat and a sought-after holiday gift. —Kristin Gleason, St. John, Kansas
Wonderful Carrot Cake
This healthy carrot cake recipe is moist, tender and delicious. Kids will love it because it's sweet, and you'll love it because it's packed with good-for-you carrots. —Brenda Rankhorn, New Market, Alabama
Wholesome Wheat Bread
My sister and I were in 4-H, and Mom was our breads project leader for years. Because of that early training, fresh homemade bread like this is a staple in my own kitchen. -Karen Wingate, Coldwater, Kansas
Fluffy Pumpkin Pancakes
These pumpkin pancakes are also delicious served with butter or whipped topping and a sprinkle of pumpkin pie spice. Freeze any extras in a single layer on a cookie sheet, then store in a freezer bag. They're great fresh out of the toaster! —Mindy Bauknecht, Two Rivers, Wisconsin
Applesauce Cinnamon Bread
This whole wheat apple cinnamon bread recipe contains quite a bit of applesauce, which provides natural sweetness so you use less sugar. As a bonus, it also allows for a minimal amount of oil to be used. —Sherry Craw, Mattoon, Illinois
Chunky Breakfast Cookies
Who says cookies aren’t for breakfast? We devour these hearty oatmeal cookies, especially on the run. Add any dried fruits and nuts you have on hand. —Lea Langhoff, Round Lake, IL
Rustic Rye Bread
This gorgeous rye bread has just a touch of sweetness and the perfect amount of caraway seeds. With a crusty top and firm texture, it holds up well to sandwiches, but a pat of butter will do the job, too. —Holly Wade, Harrisonburg, Virginia
Yummy Zucchini Coffee Cake
The first time I made this, I gave some to my daughter, who hates zucchini, and she said it was the best thing I ever made! It has been an excellent and wholesome way to use up all of the zucchini from my garden. If using thawed shredded zucchini, make sure to drain very well. —Tammy Kirsch, Arcade, New York
Blue-Ribbon Herb Rolls
These rolls have been a favorite of ours for nearly 25 years. I even baked them in an old wood stove when we lived on a farm. I developed the recipe using several techniques I learned while studying the art of bread making. The recipe won a blue ribbon at our county fair. —Mary Ann Evans, Tarpon Springs, Florida
Chapati Breads
My daughter and I prepare this Indian flatbread frequently. It is so fun to make and goes well with any spiced dish. We use the extras to make sandwich wraps. —Joyce McCarthy, Sussex, Wisconsin
Wild Mushroom Pizza
What's great about this wild mushroom pizza is you don't need to worry about finding the right toppings. Whatever wild mushrooms are in season or at your market will work beautifully. I like to get as many different ones as possible. —James Schend, Taste of Home Deputy Editor
Cardamom Sour Cream Waffles
Sweet with just the right amount of spice, these easy waffles make it nearly impossible to skip your morning meal. —Barbie Miller, Oakdale, Minnesota
